The EU ETS Maritime regime (Directive (EU) 2023/959, in force 1 January 2024) requires shipping companies to surrender EU Allowances (EUAs) for emissions reported under the EU MRV Regulation (Reg (EU) 2015/757 as amended by Reg (EU) 2023/957). The MRV per-voyage data feeds directly into the ETS allowance calculation through a defined scope and phase-in.
Scope CO2
$$ \text{Scope CO}_2 = E_\text{intra} + 0.5 \cdot (E_\text{out} + E_\text{in}) + E_\text{berth} + E_\text{CH4+N2O} $$Symbol legend
| Symbol | Meaning | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| $Scope CO2$ | Total ETS-scope CO2-equivalent before phase-in | t CO2e/yr | result |
| $E_\text{intra}$ | CO2 from intra-EU voyages (EEA port to EEA port) | t CO2/yr | MRV annual report |
| $E_\text{out}$ | CO2 from outbound voyages (EEA port to non-EEA port) | t CO2/yr | MRV annual report |
| $E_\text{in}$ | CO2 from inbound voyages (non-EEA port to EEA port) | t CO2/yr | MRV annual report |
| $E_\text{berth}$ | CO2 from emissions at berth in EEA ports | t CO2/yr | MRV annual report |
| $E_\text{CH4+N2O}$ | CH4 and N2O converted to CO2-equivalent (only from 2026) | t CO2e/yr | MRV annual report from 2026 |
The 0.5 factor on outbound and inbound voyages reflects the EU’s recognition that approximately half of any cross-jurisdiction voyage occurs outside EU waters.
Allowance obligation
$$ \text{Allowances (t)} = \text{Scope CO}_2 \cdot p_\text{phase-in} $$| Symbol | Meaning | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allowances | EUAs to surrender for the reporting year | t CO2e (= EUAs) | result |
| $p_\text{phase-in}$ | Phase-in factor for the reporting year | fraction | Directive 2023/959 Art 3ga |
Annual cost
$$ \text{Cost} = \text{Allowances} \cdot P_\text{EUA} $$| Symbol | Meaning | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost | Annual EUA surrender cost | EUR / yr | result |
| $P_\text{EUA}$ | EU Allowance spot price | EUR / t CO2e | EEX or ICE EUA spot |
Phase-in trajectory (Directive 2023/959 Art 3ga)
| Year | CO2 phase-in | CH4 / N2O phase-in | Surrender deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40% | not in scope | 30 September 2025 |
| 2025 | 70% | not in scope | 30 September 2026 |
| 2026 | 100% | 100% | 30 September 2027 |
| 2027 onwards | 100% | 100% | 30 September year+1 |
The phase-in is a transitional measure designed to give shipping companies time to absorb the cost of allowance surrender. From 2026 onwards the regime applies at full scope.
Worked example
A typical 50,000 DWT bulk carrier reporting under MRV for the calendar year 2025:
- Intra-EU voyages: 8,000 t CO2
- Outbound voyages (EU to non-EU): 6,000 t CO2
- Inbound voyages (non-EU to EU): 5,000 t CO2
- At berth in EU ports: 500 t CO2
- CH4 + N2O (2025, not yet in scope): 0 t CO2e
Scope CO2 = 8,000 + 0.5 × (6,000 + 5,000) + 500 + 0 = 14,000 t CO2e
Phase-in factor for 2025 = 70%
Allowance obligation = 14,000 × 0.70 = 9,800 EUAs
At EUA price of EUR 75/t: Annual cost = 9,800 × 75 = EUR 735,000 (surrender by 30 September 2026)
For the same ship in 2026 (full phase-in plus methane slip from LNG conversion):
- Same per-voyage CO2: 14,000 t CO2 scope
- Plus 200 t CH4 slip × 28 GWP100 = 5,600 t CO2e from CH4
Scope CO2 = 14,000 + 5,600 = 19,600 t CO2e
Phase-in factor for 2026 = 100%
Allowance obligation = 19,600 × 1.0 = 19,600 EUAs
At EUA price of EUR 75/t: Annual cost = EUR 1,470,000 (surrender by 30 September 2027). The 2026 cost is approximately double the 2025 cost, reflecting the combined effect of full phase-in and methane scope addition.
Sources
- Regulation (EU) 2015/757 - EU MRV Maritime regulation.
- Regulation (EU) 2023/957 - amendments to EU MRV.
- Directive (EU) 2023/959 - EU ETS Maritime amendments.
- Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2016/1927 - templates for monitoring plans, emissions reports and DoC.
- EMSA THETIS-MRV public database (https://mrv.emsa.europa.eu).
- IMO Resolution MEPC.376(80) - 2024 LCA Guidelines (CH4 and N2O accounting).